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Santa Fe W vs Fortaleza W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:00

Santa Fe W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza W

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-14.8%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.8%1-18.8%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.1%3-15.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-13.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 84.7% 1.18 -29.5%

Draw 24.5% 17.9% 5.60 +22.3%

Away win 15.8% 7.7% 13.00 +63.2%

Over 2.5 45.9% 61.7% 1.62 -25.6%

Over 3.5 26.3% 40.0% 2.50 -20.5%

BTTS 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 76.9% 1.30 -29.0%

Away O1.5 16.7% 10.4% 9.60 +36.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 60% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 1–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe W1.8

Fortaleza W0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE W · PPG 1.57

FORTALEZA W · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe W (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -29.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +22.3%

Fortaleza W (A) 15.8%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +63.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe W face Fortaleza W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe W a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Fortaleza W 16%, so Santa Fe W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Santa Fe W and 0.5 for Fortaleza W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.14 for Fortaleza W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +36.2%.

Santa Fe W vs Fortaleza W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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