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Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Matchday 16 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 22:00

Independiente Medellín W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

América de Cali W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.7%0-27.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.4%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 20.0% 5.00 +85.0%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 35.5% 58.8% 1.70 -39.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 40.8% 2.45 +22.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 53.1% 45.5% 2.20 +16.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 21.1% 4.75 +43.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.1%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Medellín W1.1

América de Cali W1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLÍN W · PPG 2.57

AMÉRICA DE CALI W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Medellín W (H) 37.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +85.0%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

América de Cali W (A) 35.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Medellín W face América de Cali W in Colombia - Liga Femenina on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Medellín W a 37% chance, the draw 28% and América de Cali W 36%, so Independiente Medellín W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Independiente Medellín W and 1.2 for América de Cali W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Medellín W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 2.00 for América de Cali W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +65.4%.

Independiente Medellín W vs América de Cali W Prediction— Colombia - Liga Femenina

Match Preview & Prediction

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