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CSA vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

CSA

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uberlandia

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-19.2%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-111.8%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.4%2-17.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.3%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 57.1% 1.75 -9.9%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 21.6% 23.1% 4.33 -3.9%

Over 2.5 37.8% 44.4% 2.25 -14.9%

Over 3.5 21.0% 25.0% 4.00 -9.6%

BTTS 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

Home O1.5 37.9% 47.6% 2.10 -20.4%

Away O1.5 16.9% 23.1% 4.33 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 22%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.4%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSA1.3

Uberlandia0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CSA · PPG 2.25

UBERLANDIA · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSA (H) 51.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Uberlandia (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSA face Uberlandia in Brazil - Serie D on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSA a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Uberlandia 22%, so CSA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for CSA and 0.6 for Uberlandia (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSA are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.12 for Uberlandia.

CSA vs Uberlandia Prediction— Brazil - Serie D

Match Preview & Prediction

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