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Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Olimpia

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cerro Porteno

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.3%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.5%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

Draw 26.4% 33.3% 3.00 -12.5%

Away win 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -2.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 26.7% 3.75 +3.9%

BTTS 53.1% 54.6% 1.83 -2.8%

Home O1.5 37.8% 44.4% 2.25 -14.9%

Away O1.5 35.6% 30.8% 3.25 +15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 75%

ROI 44.4%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1✓ 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olimpia1.4

Cerro Porteno1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIMPIA · PPG 1.71

CERRO PORTENO · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olimpia (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -3.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.5%

Cerro Porteno (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olimpia face Cerro Porteno in Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olimpia a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Cerro Porteno 29%, so Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Olimpia and 1.1 for Cerro Porteno (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olimpia are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.39 for Cerro Porteno. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Olimpia vs Cerro Porteno Prediction— Paraguay - Division Profesional - Clausura

Match Preview & Prediction

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