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Arenas Club vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 34 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:30

Arenas Club

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Merida

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+26.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.0%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.0%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.8%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 38.5% 2.60 +49.0%

Draw 21.6% 32.3% 3.10 -33.0%

Away win 21.1% 38.5% 2.60 -45.1%

Over 2.5 60.2% 47.6% 2.10 +26.4%

Over 3.5 37.8% 26.0% 3.85 +45.5%

BTTS 58.3% 55.6% 1.80 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.3%

H 57% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 2–0✓ 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arenas Club2.0

Merida1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARENAS CLUB · PPG 2.00

MERIDA · PPG 0.88

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

Arenas Club (H) 57.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +49.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -33.0%

Merida (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arenas Club face Merida in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arenas Club a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Merida 21%, so Arenas Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arenas Club and 1.1 for Merida (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arenas Club are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Merida. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Arenas Club vs Merida Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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