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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, April 24, 2026 18:30 
Arenas Club PPG 2.00 
Merida PPG 0.88
Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Friday, April 24, 2026 18:30 Arenas Club PPG 2.002-0 HIT CS4
Merida PPG 0.88Home· +49.0% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 60.2% Odds: 2.10 +26.4%
Over 3.5 37.8% Odds: 3.85 +45.5%
BTTS 58.3% Odds: 1.80 +4.9%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-0 ✔
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Arenas Club 1.99
Merida 1.13
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 +26.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Home(+49.0%)
Raw EV leader: Home(+49.0%)
League Track Record ↗
Based on 60 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 40%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 62%
Score Hit 47%
ROI -35.1%
Bet Hit 35% (17 bets)
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 95%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.3%