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Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

Red Bull Salzburg

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

UPCOMING

Rapid Vienna

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.4%0-24.8%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.9%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 55.6% 1.80 -24.0%

Draw 23.3% 25.3% 3.95 -4.8%

Away win 34.5% 26.3% 3.80 +31.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 45.5% 2.20 -19.3%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 46.7% 63.7% 1.57 -26.7%

Away O1.5 39.1% 42.0% 2.38 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Bull Salzburg1.6

Rapid Vienna1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RED BULL SALZBURG · PPG 1.87

RAPID VIENNA · PPG 1.61

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Red Bull Salzburg (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -24.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.8%

Rapid Vienna (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Bull Salzburg face Rapid Vienna in Austria - Bundesliga on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Rapid Vienna 35%, so Red Bull Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.3 for Rapid Vienna (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.61 for Rapid Vienna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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