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Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Red Bull Salzburg

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWW ·

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Austria Vienna

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 48.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-16.5%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.3%1-111.2%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 73.5% 1.36 -27.8%

Draw 24.3% 20.8% 4.80 +10.0%

Away win 22.6% 12.5% 8.00 +48.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 67.6% 1.48 -20.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 73.5% 1.36 -33.5%

Away O1.5 29.9% 27.0% 3.70 +6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Bull Salzburg1.7

Austria Vienna1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RED BULL SALZBURG · PPG 1.68

AUSTRIA VIENNA · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Red Bull Salzburg (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -27.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +10.0%

Austria Vienna (A) 22.6%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +48.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Bull Salzburg face Austria Vienna in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Austria Vienna 23%, so Red Bull Salzburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.0 for Austria Vienna (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.56 for Austria Vienna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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