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TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 15:00

TSV Hartberg logo
TSV Hartberg
PPG 1.01 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Austria Vienna logo
Austria Vienna
PPG 1.32 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-18.6%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.5%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.0%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 45.3% 36.4% 2.75 +24.6%
Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%
Away win 27.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.3%
Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%
Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%
BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%
Home O1.5 45.1% 39.2% 2.55 +15.0%
Away O1.5 34.3% 41.7% 2.40 -17.7%

League track record

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%
O2.5 46%
BTTS 46%
Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%
#2 0–0 8.0%
#3 1–0 11.5%
#4 2–1 9.0%
#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV Hartberg1.4
Austria Vienna1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV HARTBERG · PPG 1.01

AUSTRIA VIENNA · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.36 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TSV Hartberg (H) 45.3%
ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +24.6%
Draw 26.9%
ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%
Austria Vienna (A) 27.8%
ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV Hartberg face Austria Vienna in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV Hartberg a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Austria Vienna 28%, so TSV Hartberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for TSV Hartberg and 1.1 for Austria Vienna (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.32 for Austria Vienna. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.1%.

PredictVantage

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