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Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:30

Ried

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Grazer AK

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+33.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.3%1-17.5%1-24.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-19.3%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.7%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-18.5%4+-25.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 50.0% 2.00 +14.0%

Draw 20.7% 29.9% 3.35 -18.4%

Away win 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Over 2.5 67.3% 51.3% 1.95 +31.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 29.4% 3.40 +47.9%

BTTS 63.1% 57.8% 1.73 +9.2%

Home O1.5 65.1% 48.8% 2.05 +33.5%

Away O1.5 37.0% 33.3% 3.00 +11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.1%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.7%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ried2.5

Grazer AK1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RIED · PPG 1.43

GRAZER AK · PPG 0.72

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ried (H) 57.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +14.0%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -18.4%

Grazer AK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ried face Grazer AK in Austria - Bundesliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ried a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Grazer AK 22%, so Ried are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ried and 1.2 for Grazer AK (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ried are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.72 for Grazer AK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +57.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Ried vs Grazer AK Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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