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TSV Hartberg vs Ried Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

TSV Hartberg

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ried

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.5%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 36.4% 2.75 +18.5%

Draw 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

Away win 29.7% 40.8% 2.45 -16.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 29.5% 29.4% 3.40 +0.2%

BTTS 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 40.0% 2.50 -5.5%

Away O1.5 33.0% 42.6% 2.35 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 43% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV Hartberg1.3

Ried1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV HARTBERG · PPG 0.87

RIED · PPG 0.93

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

TSV Hartberg (H) 43.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +18.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.1%

Ried (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV Hartberg face Ried in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV Hartberg a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Ried 30%, so TSV Hartberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for TSV Hartberg and 1.1 for Ried (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV Hartberg are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 0.93 for Ried. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-2.

TSV Hartberg vs Ried Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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