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Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:00

Rapid Vienna

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sturm Graz

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.5%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 46.5% 2.15 +10.3%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 24.4% 33.9% 2.95 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 62.5% 1.60 -14.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 54.3% 67.6% 1.48 -19.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Away O1.5 32.7% 44.4% 2.25 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rapid Vienna1.6

Sturm Graz1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RAPID VIENNA · PPG 1.94

STURM GRAZ · PPG 1.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rapid Vienna (H) 51.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +10.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Sturm Graz (A) 24.4%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rapid Vienna face Sturm Graz in Austria - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rapid Vienna a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Sturm Graz 24%, so Rapid Vienna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rapid Vienna and 1.1 for Sturm Graz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.90 for Sturm Graz. This match finished 3-1.

Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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