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Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:00

Grazer AK

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wolfsberger AC

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.5%0-26.5%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.5%1-111.6%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.1%2-17.9%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.3%3-13.6%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.6%

Draw 24.0% 28.2% 3.55 -8.9%

Away win 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

BTTS 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Home O1.5 38.0% 42.0% 2.38 -9.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grazer AK1.4

Wolfsberger AC1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GRAZER AK · PPG 1.78

WOLFSBERGER AC · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Grazer AK (H) 31.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.9%

Wolfsberger AC (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grazer AK face Wolfsberger AC in Austria - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grazer AK a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Wolfsberger AC 45%, so Wolfsberger AC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Grazer AK and 1.5 for Wolfsberger AC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grazer AK are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.98 for Wolfsberger AC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction— Austria - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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