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FC Midtjylland vs Randers FC Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:00

FC Midtjylland

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Randers FC

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.1%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.0%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.2%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 69.4% 1.44 -19.4%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 21.8% 16.7% 6.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Over 3.5 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 65.1% 66.7% 1.50 -2.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 25.0% 4.00 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0✓ 9.5%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Midtjylland2.2

Randers FC0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC MIDTJYLLAND · PPG 1.96

RANDERS FC · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Midtjylland (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

Randers FC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Midtjylland face Randers FC in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Midtjylland a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Randers FC 22%, so FC Midtjylland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Midtjylland and 0.9 for Randers FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Midtjylland are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 0.98 for Randers FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Midtjylland vs Randers FC Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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