Today / Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League / Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC

Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 16:00

Esteghlal FC

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWD ·

UPCOMING

Persepolis FC

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-19.1%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.7%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-18.4%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.1%3-13.8%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.2% 34.5% 2.90 +36.9%

Draw 28.3% 33.9% 2.95 -9.9%

Away win 24.6% 41.7% 2.40 -24.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 20.6% 4.85 +0.8%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 39.5% 30.3% 3.30 +30.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 35.7% 2.80 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esteghlal FC1.4

Persepolis FC0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTEGHLAL FC · PPG 2.21

PERSEPOLIS FC · PPG 1.35

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Esteghlal FC (H) 47.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +36.9%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.9%

Persepolis FC (A) 24.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esteghlal FC face Persepolis FC in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esteghlal FC a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Persepolis FC 25%, so Esteghlal FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Esteghlal FC and 0.7 for Persepolis FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esteghlal FC are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.35 for Persepolis FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +48.3%.

Esteghlal FC vs Persepolis FC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League Predictions