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Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 15:30

Gol Gohar

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Aluminium Arak

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-111.5%0-24.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.4%1-112.9%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.2%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 51.3% 1.95 -15.6%

Draw 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Away win 25.9% 24.4% 4.10 +3.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 33.9% 2.95 +14.5%

Over 3.5 19.2% — — —

BTTS 48.0% 42.0% 2.38 +14.2%

Home O1.5 31.2% 38.5% 2.60 -18.9%

Away O1.5 18.8% 21.1% 4.75 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.4%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gol Gohar1.1

Aluminium Arak0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GOL GOHAR · PPG 2.04

ALUMINIUM ARAK · PPG 1.65

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.38, combined xG 1.86 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gol Gohar (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -15.6%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

Aluminium Arak (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gol Gohar face Aluminium Arak in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gol Gohar a 43% chance, the draw 31% and Aluminium Arak 26%, so Gol Gohar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gol Gohar and 0.7 for Aluminium Arak (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gol Gohar are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.65 for Aluminium Arak. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Gol Gohar vs Aluminium Arak Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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