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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Tractor Sazi Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 15:45

Shams Azar Qazvin

PPG 0.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Tractor Sazi

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-118.7%0-210.5%0-33.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.1%1-112.5%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-03.7%2-14.2%2-22.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.8%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 15.2% 6.60 +33.5%

Draw 31.6% 29.0% 3.45 +9.0%

Away win 44.8% 66.7% 1.50 -32.8%

Over 2.5 38.8% 38.5% 2.60 +0.9%

Over 3.5 18.5% 22.2% 4.50 -10.1%

BTTS 42.6% 38.5% 2.60 +10.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 16.7% 6.00 +84.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 51.3% 1.95 -35.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob42.6%

A 45% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.7%

#2 0–0✓ 16.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–2 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shams Azar Qazvin0.7

Tractor Sazi1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMS AZAR QAZVIN · PPG 0.76

TRACTOR SAZI · PPG 1.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.45, combined xG 1.80 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shams Azar Qazvin (H) 23.6%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +33.5%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +9.0%

Tractor Sazi (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shams Azar Qazvin face Tractor Sazi in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shams Azar Qazvin a 24% chance, the draw 32% and Tractor Sazi 45%, so Tractor Sazi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shams Azar Qazvin and 1.1 for Tractor Sazi (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shams Azar Qazvin are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 1.86 for Tractor Sazi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +84.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Tractor Sazi Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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