Today / Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League / Paykan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Paykan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

Paykan

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Esteghlal Khuzestan

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+30.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.0%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.2%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.5%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.1%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 40.0% 2.50 +30.5%

Draw 26.4% 38.5% 2.60 -18.8%

Away win 21.5% 31.3% 3.20 -18.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 27.4% 3.65 +63.5%

Over 3.5 26.3% 12.8% 7.80 +63.1%

BTTS 47.2% 37.7% 2.65 +25.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 28.2% 3.55 +42.4%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 0–0✓ 11.8%

#4 1–1 11.7%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paykan1.5

Esteghlal Khuzestan0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYKAN · PPG 1.24

ESTEGHLAL KHUZESTAN · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paykan (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +30.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.8%

Esteghlal Khuzestan (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paykan face Esteghlal Khuzestan in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paykan a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Esteghlal Khuzestan 22%, so Paykan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paykan and 0.7 for Esteghlal Khuzestan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paykan are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 0.88 for Esteghlal Khuzestan. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Paykan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League Predictions