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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Chadormalu SC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 15:30

Esteghlal Khuzestan

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Chadormalu SC

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-111.9%0-24.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.1%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.6%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 32.3% 3.10 +35.2%

Draw 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Away win 25.4% 44.4% 2.25 -25.7%

Over 2.5 38.8% 40.8% 2.45 -4.9%

Over 3.5 18.6% 22.2% 4.50 -9.8%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Away O1.5 20.2% 39.2% 2.55 -29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Esteghlal Khuzestan1.1

Chadormalu SC0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTEGHLAL KHUZESTAN · PPG 1.19

CHADORMALU SC · PPG 1.02

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Esteghlal Khuzestan (H) 43.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +35.2%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Chadormalu SC (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Esteghlal Khuzestan face Chadormalu SC in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Esteghlal Khuzestan a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Chadormalu SC 25%, so Esteghlal Khuzestan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.8 for Chadormalu SC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Esteghlal Khuzestan are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.02 for Chadormalu SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Chadormalu SC Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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