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Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:45

Aluminium Arak

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Kheybar Khorramabad

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-110.0%0-23.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.1%1-112.4%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-17.7%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.9% 2.33 +15.8%

Draw 27.3% 35.1% 2.85 -13.3%

Away win 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Over 2.5 43.0% 35.1% 2.85 +22.6%

Over 3.5 20.7% 16.9% 5.90 +13.3%

BTTS 47.2% 45.5% 2.20 +3.8%

Home O1.5 34.8% 34.5% 2.90 +0.9%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 12.4%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aluminium Arak1.2

Kheybar Khorramabad0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMINIUM ARAK · PPG 1.19

KHEYBAR KHORRAMABAD · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aluminium Arak (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +15.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -13.3%

Kheybar Khorramabad (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aluminium Arak face Kheybar Khorramabad in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aluminium Arak a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Kheybar Khorramabad 23%, so Aluminium Arak are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aluminium Arak and 0.7 for Kheybar Khorramabad (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aluminium Arak are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.15 for Kheybar Khorramabad. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Aluminium Arak vs Kheybar Khorramabad Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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