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Persepolis FC vs Malavan Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:45

Persepolis FC

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Malavan

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.3%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.5%1-112.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-17.8%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.2%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 68.5% 1.46 -25.0%

Draw 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Away win 21.7% 13.0% 7.70 +40.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 37.2% — — —

Away O1.5 18.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.5%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 1–1 12.0%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Persepolis FC1.3

Malavan0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PERSEPOLIS FC · PPG 1.92

MALAVAN · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Persepolis FC (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -25.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

Malavan (A) 21.7%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +40.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Persepolis FC face Malavan in Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Persepolis FC a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Malavan 22%, so Persepolis FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Persepolis FC and 0.7 for Malavan (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Persepolis FC are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.21 for Malavan. This match finished 3-0.

Persepolis FC vs Malavan Prediction— Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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