Today / Hungary - NB I / Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest

Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 31 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

Kazincbarcika

PPG 0.47 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

MTK Budapest

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+17.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.1%0-27.4%0-35.9%0-4+6.3%1 1-03.2%1-17.7%1-29.3%1-37.5%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.0%2-14.9%2-25.9%2-34.7%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.8%3-12.0%3-22.5%3-32.0%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.6% 24.4% 4.10 -23.7%

Draw 18.6% 26.7% 3.75 -30.3%

Away win 62.8% 57.8% 1.73 +8.6%

Over 2.5 70.9% 60.6% 1.65 +17.0%

Over 3.5 49.9% 38.5% 2.60 +29.7%

BTTS 65.2% 63.7% 1.57 +2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob65.2%

A 63% / xG 1.3-2.4 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 1–3 7.5%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kazincbarcika1.3

MTK Budapest2.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAZINCBARCIKA · PPG 0.47

MTK BUDAPEST · PPG 0.79

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.47) vs Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Kazincbarcika (H) 18.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -23.7%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -30.3%

MTK Budapest (A) 62.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kazincbarcika face MTK Budapest in Hungary - NB I on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kazincbarcika a 19% chance, the draw 19% and MTK Budapest 63%, so MTK Budapest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kazincbarcika and 2.4 for MTK Budapest (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kazincbarcika are averaging 0.47 points per game versus 0.79 for MTK Budapest. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Hungary - NB I Predictions