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Orsomarso vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 22:00

Orsomarso

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Real Cundinamarca

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-112.7%0-24.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.1%2-16.6%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

Draw 32.1% 34.7% 2.88 -7.5%

Away win 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Over 2.5 36.1% 37.7% 2.65 -4.3%

Over 3.5 18.0% 19.6% 5.10 -4.9%

BTTS 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Away O1.5 18.2% 29.9% 3.35 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.7%

H 40% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orsomarso1.0

Real Cundinamarca0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.1% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORSOMARSO · PPG 1.38

REAL CUNDINAMARCA · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 1.74 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orsomarso (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -1.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -7.5%

Real Cundinamarca (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orsomarso face Real Cundinamarca in Colombia - Primera B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orsomarso a 40% chance, the draw 32% and Real Cundinamarca 28%, so Orsomarso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Orsomarso and 0.7 for Real Cundinamarca (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orsomarso are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.60 for Real Cundinamarca. This match finished 2-0.

Orsomarso vs Real Cundinamarca Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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