Today / Colombia - Primera B / Quindio vs Envigado

Quindio vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

Quindio

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Envigado

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-112.6%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.7%2-17.2%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.6%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 38.5% 2.60 -0.9%

Draw 32.9% 34.7% 2.88 -5.3%

Away win 29.0% 37.0% 2.70 -13.0%

Over 2.5 42.2% 37.7% 2.65 +11.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.2% 4.95 +1.2%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 25.2% 31.3% 3.20 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0✓ 14.5%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quindio1.1

Envigado0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

QUINDIO · PPG 1.58

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Quindio (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -0.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.3%

Envigado (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quindio face Envigado in Colombia - Primera B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quindio a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Envigado 29%, so Quindio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Quindio and 0.9 for Envigado (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quindio are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.86 for Envigado. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Quindio vs Envigado Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions