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Trasandino vs Colchagua Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Promotion Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Trasandino

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Colchagua

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.0%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.6%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.1%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 40.8% 2.45 +16.4%

Draw 24.7% 34.5% 2.90 -17.0%

Away win 27.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 30.4% 27.9% 3.58 +8.8%

BTTS 53.0% 55.6% 1.80 -4.6%

Home O1.5 39.7% 40.3% 2.48 -1.5%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.3% 2.68 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trasandino1.4

Colchagua1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRASANDINO · PPG 1.62

COLCHAGUA · PPG 1.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trasandino (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +16.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.0%

Colchagua (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trasandino face Colchagua in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trasandino a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Colchagua 28%, so Trasandino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trasandino and 1.1 for Colchagua (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trasandino are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.83 for Colchagua. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Trasandino vs Colchagua Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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