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Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Relegation Group · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Provincial Ovalle

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real San Joaquín

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+29.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.0%0-28.1%0-35.5%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.8%1-36.6%1-4+5.4%2 2-02.8%2-15.8%2-25.9%2-34.0%2-4+3.2%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.4%3-31.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.2% 47.6% 2.10 -23.2%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 48.3% 34.5% 2.90 +40.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 48.8% 2.05 +29.3%

Over 3.5 39.4% 29.9% 3.34 +31.6%

BTTS 61.3% 57.1% 1.75 +7.3%

Home O1.5 32.4% 45.7% 2.19 -29.0%

Away O1.5 55.2% 36.0% 2.78 +53.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 24%

O2.5 32%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.3%

A 48% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 2–1 5.8%

#4 0–2 8.1%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Provincial Ovalle1.2

Real San Joaquín2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PROVINCIAL OVALLE · PPG 0.83

REAL SAN JOAQUÍN · PPG 1.50

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Provincial Ovalle (H) 29.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Real San Joaquín (A) 48.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +40.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Provincial Ovalle face Real San Joaquín in Chile - Segunda División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Provincial Ovalle a 29% chance, the draw 23% and Real San Joaquín 48%, so Real San Joaquín are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Provincial Ovalle and 2.0 for Real San Joaquín (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Provincial Ovalle are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.50 for Real San Joaquín. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +100.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquín Prediction— Chile - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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