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Envigado vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 20:00

Envigado

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Union Magdalena

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-111.5%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.3%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-17.7%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 28.3% — — —

Over 2.5 42.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.9% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 31.5% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 0–1✓ 11.5%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Envigado1.2

Union Magdalena0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ENVIGADO · PPG 1.83

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Envigado (H) 41.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Magdalena (A) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Envigado face Union Magdalena in Colombia - Primera B on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Envigado a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Union Magdalena 28%, so Envigado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Envigado and 0.9 for Union Magdalena (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Envigado are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.67 for Union Magdalena. This match finished 0-1.

Envigado vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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