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O. Charleroi vs Lommel U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Regular Season - 24 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 18:00

O. Charleroi

PPG 0.70 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Lommel U21

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.70)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.7%0-25.7%0-38.1%0-4+26.7%1 1-00.5%1-12.2%1-24.7%1-36.6%1-4+22.0%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.9%2-32.7%2-4+9.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.8%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 2.9% — — —

Draw 5.8% — — —

Away win 91.3% — — —

Over 2.5 87.9% — — —

Over 3.5 74.2% — — —

BTTS 55.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 78%

O2.5 94%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 41.4%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.2 BTTS prob55.3%

A 91% / xG 0.8-4.2 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.5%

#2 0–3✓ 8.1%

#3 0–5 7.2%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 1–3 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Charleroi0.8

Lommel U214.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.9% · O3.5 PROB 74.2%

Form & verdict PPG

O. CHARLEROI · PPG 0.70

LOMMEL U21 · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home POOR (0.70)

Win probability 1X2

O. Charleroi (H) 2.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 5.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lommel U21 (A) 91.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Charleroi face Lommel U21 in Belgium - Reserve Pro League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Charleroi a 3% chance, the draw 6% and Lommel U21 91%, so Lommel U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for O. Charleroi and 4.2 for Lommel U21 (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Charleroi are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.80 for Lommel U21. This match finished 0-3.

O. Charleroi vs Lommel U21 Prediction— Belgium - Reserve Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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