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Portimonense U23 vs Farense U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:30

Portimonense U23

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLD ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Farense U23

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.6%0-26.7%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.4%1-111.5%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 28.6% 3.50 +22.1%

Draw 23.7% 29.4% 3.40 -11.7%

Away win 41.5% 52.4% 1.91 -20.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.8% 1.93 +3.3%

Over 3.5 31.9% 29.9% 3.35 +6.9%

BTTS 55.0% 57.8% 1.73 -4.9%

Home O1.5 37.6% 33.3% 3.00 +12.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.0%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portimonense U231.3

Farense U231.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTIMONENSE U23 · PPG 1.18

FARENSE U23 · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portimonense U23 (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +22.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.7%

Farense U23 (A) 41.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portimonense U23 face Farense U23 in Portugal - Liga Revelação U23 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portimonense U23 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Farense U23 42%, so Farense U23 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Portimonense U23 and 1.6 for Farense U23 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portimonense U23 are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.89 for Farense U23. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Portimonense U23 vs Farense U23 Prediction— Portugal - Liga Revelação U23

Match Preview & Prediction

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