Today / VVV vs Almere City

VVV vs Almere City Prediction

Friday, April 24, 2026

VVV

PPG 1.28 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Almere City

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.7%0-25.9%0-34.1%0-4+3.4%1 1-04.2%1-18.7%1-29.0%1-36.2%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.6%2-26.8%2-34.7%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.4%3-23.5%3-32.4%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 50.2% — — —

Over 2.5 69.4% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 68.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.2%

A 50% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VVV1.5

Almere City2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.4% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VVV · PPG 1.28

ALMERE CITY · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

VVV (H) 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Almere City (A) 50.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

VVV face Almere City on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VVV a 29% chance, the draw 21% and Almere City 50%, so Almere City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for VVV and 2.1 for Almere City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VVV are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.39 for Almere City. This match finished 3-1.

VVV vs Almere City Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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