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Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:30

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Hapoel Kfar Saba

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.8%0-26.1%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.3%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 46.5% 2.15 -15.9%

Draw 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

Away win 36.1% 33.9% 2.95 +6.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.4%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 37.8% 51.3% 1.95 -26.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 40.8% 2.45 +0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Rishon LeZion1.4

Hapoel Kfar Saba1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL RISHON LEZION · PPG 1.42

HAPOEL KFAR SABA · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -15.9%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.5%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Rishon LeZion face Hapoel Kfar Saba in Israel - Liga Leumit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Rishon LeZion a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Hapoel Kfar Saba 36%, so Hapoel Rishon LeZion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hapoel Rishon LeZion and 1.4 for Hapoel Kfar Saba (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Rishon LeZion are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.42 for Hapoel Kfar Saba. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Hapoel Rishon LeZion vs Hapoel Kfar Saba Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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