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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Modi'in Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Hapoel Kfar Saba

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Ironi Modi'in

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.3%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.8%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 47.6% 2.10 -13.1%

Draw 31.2% 30.3% 3.30 +3.0%

Away win 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -6.6%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 48.8% 2.05 -22.5%

Away O1.5 34.4% 37.0% 2.70 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.1%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Kfar Saba1.4

Ironi Modi'in1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL KFAR SABA · PPG 1.39

IRONI MODI'IN · PPG 0.97

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Kfar Saba (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.1%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.0%

Ironi Modi'in (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Kfar Saba face Ironi Modi'in in Israel - Liga Leumit on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Kfar Saba a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Ironi Modi'in 27%, so Hapoel Kfar Saba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hapoel Kfar Saba and 1.1 for Ironi Modi'in (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Kfar Saba are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 0.97 for Ironi Modi'in. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-4.

Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Modi'in Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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