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Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Kafr Qasim Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Matchday 1 ·Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 16:30

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kafr Qasim

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.2%0-25.0%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.3%1-111.4%1-27.8%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.9%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.4%3-14.7%3-23.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 55.6% 1.80 -20.4%

Draw 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Away win 31.8% 26.3% 3.80 +20.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

BTTS 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Away O1.5 41.2% 34.5% 2.90 +19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 15%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.0%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 2–0✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Kfar Shalem1.6

Kafr Qasim1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL KFAR SHALEM · PPG 1.46

KAFR QASIM · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Kafr Qasim (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Kfar Shalem face Kafr Qasim in Israel - Liga Leumit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Kfar Shalem a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Kafr Qasim 32%, so Hapoel Kfar Shalem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem and 1.4 for Kafr Qasim (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Kfar Shalem are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.29 for Kafr Qasim. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Kafr Qasim Prediction— Israel - Liga Leumit

Match Preview & Prediction

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