Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Monagas SC vs Portuguesa FC

Monagas SC vs Portuguesa FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Monagas SC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Portuguesa FC

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.0%0-26.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.4%1-112.0%1-28.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.6%2-18.0%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 39.0% 32.3% 3.10 +20.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 50.0% 2.00 +7.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.8% 3.60 +13.8%

BTTS 57.7% 56.5% 1.77 +2.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 45.5% 2.20 -16.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 35.1% 2.85 +17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.7%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas SC1.3

Portuguesa FC1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS SC · PPG 1.56

PORTUGUESA FC · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas SC (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Portuguesa FC (A) 39.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas SC face Portuguesa FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas SC a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Portuguesa FC 39%, so Portuguesa FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Monagas SC and 1.4 for Portuguesa FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas SC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.18 for Portuguesa FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +23.5%.

Monagas SC vs Portuguesa FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions