Today / MVV Maastricht vs TOP Oss

MVV Maastricht vs TOP Oss Prediction

Friday, April 24, 2026

MVV Maastricht
PPG 1.28 · HOME
0 – 2
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
TOP Oss
PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-17.3%0-26.3%0-33.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.1%1-110.5%1-29.0%1-35.2%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.5%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.1%3-13.6%3-23.1%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 32.2%
Draw 23.3%
Away win 44.5%
Over 2.5 61.3%
Over 3.5 38.9%
BTTS 62.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-2
xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.7%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%
#2 1–2 9.0%
#3 2–1 7.5%
#4 0–1 7.3%
#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MVV Maastricht1.4
TOP Oss1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MVV MAASTRICHT · PPG 1.28

TOP OSS · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.28), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

MVV Maastricht (H) 32.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
TOP Oss (A) 44.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MVV Maastricht face TOP Oss on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MVV Maastricht a 32% chance, the draw 23% and TOP Oss 45%, so TOP Oss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for MVV Maastricht and 1.7 for TOP Oss (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MVV Maastricht are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.11 for TOP Oss. This match finished 0-2.

PredictVantage

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