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Sportivo Carapeguá vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Sportivo Carapeguá

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Encarnación

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.3%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.6%1-112.7%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.7%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-13.9%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 50.0% 2.00 -1.8%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Over 2.5 44.2% 48.8% 2.05 -9.4%

Over 3.5 25.2% 28.7% 3.48 -7.4%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 47.4% 2.11 -20.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Carapeguá1.4

Encarnación0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO CARAPEGUÁ · PPG 1.78

ENCARNACIÓN · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Carapeguá (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -1.8%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Encarnación (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Carapeguá face Encarnación in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Carapeguá a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Encarnación 24%, so Sportivo Carapeguá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Carapeguá and 0.9 for Encarnación (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Carapeguá are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.78 for Encarnación. This match finished 1-3.

Sportivo Carapeguá vs Encarnación Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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