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Benjamín Aceval vs Deportivo Santani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 13:00

Benjamín Aceval

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportivo Santani

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.8%0-25.9%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-18.0%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 40.0% 2.50 -9.8%

Draw 27.3% 33.3% 3.00 -10.9%

Away win 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 27.2% 3.68 +2.3%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 32.9% 38.9% 2.57 -15.4%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.9% 2.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -43.1%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benjamín Aceval1.2

Deportivo Santani1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BENJAMÍN ACEVAL · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO SANTANI · PPG 1.89

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benjamín Aceval (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -9.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.9%

Deportivo Santani (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benjamín Aceval face Deportivo Santani in Paraguay - Division Intermedia on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benjamín Aceval a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Santani 37%, so Deportivo Santani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Benjamín Aceval and 1.1 for Deportivo Santani (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benjamín Aceval are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Deportivo Santani. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Benjamín Aceval vs Deportivo Santani Prediction— Paraguay - Division Intermedia

Match Preview & Prediction

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