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SC Braga vs Vitória SC Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:15

SC Braga

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vitória SC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.0%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.8% 1.73 -11.8%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 24.7% 21.1% 4.75 +10.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.9% 30.8% 3.25 +3.7%

BTTS 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Home O1.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 28.2% 3.55 +17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0✓ 9.8%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Braga1.8

Vitória SC1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SC BRAGA · PPG 1.67

VITÓRIA SC · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

SC Braga (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Vitória SC (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Braga face Vitória SC in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Braga a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Vitória SC 25%, so SC Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for SC Braga and 1.1 for Vitória SC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Braga are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.88 for Vitória SC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 1-0.

SC Braga vs Vitória SC Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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