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Zakho vs Diyala Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:45

Zakho

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDL ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Diyala

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.1%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.3%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 62.5% 1.60 -29.3%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.1% 2.08 +5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.2% 3.42 -1.1%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 39.8% 54.1% 1.85 -26.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 23.3% 4.30 +40.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zakho1.4

Diyala1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAKHO · PPG 1.82

DIYALA · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zakho (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -29.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Diyala (A) 28.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zakho face Diyala in Iraq - Iraqi League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zakho a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Diyala 29%, so Zakho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Zakho and 1.0 for Diyala (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zakho are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.10 for Diyala. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Zakho vs Diyala Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions