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Al Minaa Basra vs Gharraf Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Al Minaa Basra

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWL ·

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Gharraf

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.7%0-26.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.5%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.1%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.7%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 44.4% 2.25 -17.0%

Draw 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

Away win 30.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.7%

Over 2.5 37.8% 44.4% 2.25 -14.9%

Over 3.5 19.4% 25.0% 4.00 -13.4%

BTTS 47.2% 53.8% 1.86 -12.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.3% 2.48 -23.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.9% 3.04 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 33% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Minaa Basra1.1

Gharraf0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MINAA BASRA · PPG 1.57

GHARRAF · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.00 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Minaa Basra (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.0%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.0%

Gharraf (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Minaa Basra face Gharraf in Iraq - Iraqi League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Minaa Basra a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Gharraf 30%, so Al Minaa Basra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Minaa Basra and 0.9 for Gharraf (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Minaa Basra are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.21 for Gharraf. This match finished 3-0.

Al Minaa Basra vs Gharraf Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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