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Al Karkh vs Erbil Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 15:30

Al Karkh

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Erbil

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-115.1%0-210.2%0-34.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.7%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.0%2-15.3%2-23.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Draw 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

Away win 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

Over 2.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

Over 3.5 20.7% 27.0% 3.70 -14.1%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 30.9% 27.9% 3.58 +10.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 46.7% 2.14 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.2%

A 47% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 15.1%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–2 10.2%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Karkh0.8

Erbil1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KARKH · PPG 1.55

ERBIL · PPG 1.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Karkh (H) 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.9%

Erbil (A) 47.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Karkh face Erbil in Iraq - Iraqi League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Karkh a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Erbil 47%, so Erbil are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Al Karkh and 1.3 for Erbil (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Karkh are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.90 for Erbil. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Karkh vs Erbil Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Iraq - Iraqi League Predictions