Today / Iraq - Iraqi League / Al Talaba vs Newroz

Al Talaba vs Newroz Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:45

Al Talaba

PPG 1.66 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWD ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Newroz

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.0%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.1%1-110.7%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.5%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 54.6% 1.83 -14.9%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 29.3% 25.6% 3.90 +8.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 46.5% 2.15 +28.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 26.3% 3.80 +39.5%

BTTS 60.4% 52.6% 1.90 +14.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 48.3% 2.07 +1.2%

Away O1.5 40.3% 27.3% 3.66 +47.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -61.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.4%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Talaba1.8

Newroz1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL TALABA · PPG 1.66

NEWROZ · PPG 1.16

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Talaba (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Newroz (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Talaba face Newroz in Iraq - Iraqi League on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Talaba a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Newroz 29%, so Al Talaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Talaba and 1.3 for Newroz (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Talaba are averaging 1.66 points per game versus 1.16 for Newroz. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Talaba vs Newroz Prediction— Iraq - Iraqi League

Match Preview & Prediction

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