Today / Argentina - Primera C / Central Ballester vs Sportivo Barracas

Central Ballester vs Sportivo Barracas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Matchday 22 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 18:00

Central Ballester

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sportivo Barracas

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 47.2% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-113.2%0-26.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.6%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.5%2-16.9%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 30.3% 3.30 +22.1%

Draw 32.9% 34.7% 2.88 -5.3%

Away win 30.0% 45.5% 2.20 -34.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 37.0% 2.70 +15.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 18.2% 5.50 +8.3%

BTTS 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 36.4% 2.75 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 61%

ROI -66.8%

Bet Hit 14%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.6%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Ballester1.0

Sportivo Barracas0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL BALLESTER · PPG 1.09

SPORTIVO BARRACAS · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Central Ballester (H) 37.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +22.1%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.3%

Sportivo Barracas (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Ballester face Sportivo Barracas in Argentina - Primera C on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Ballester a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Sportivo Barracas 30%, so Central Ballester are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Central Ballester and 0.9 for Sportivo Barracas (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Ballester are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.00 for Sportivo Barracas. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Central Ballester vs Sportivo Barracas Prediction— Argentina - Primera C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera C Predictions