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Spartak Kostroma vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 16:30

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC UFA

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-16.5%0-22.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.8%1-111.2%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.7%3-15.4%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 61.7% 1.62 -13.7%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 22.2% 18.3% 5.45 +12.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 44.8% 2.23 +11.3%

Over 3.5 29.3% 25.6% 3.90 +8.6%

BTTS 53.1% 46.7% 2.14 +13.6%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Away O1.5 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 14%

ROI -20.8%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Kostroma1.7

FC UFA0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.57

FC UFA · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Kostroma (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

FC UFA (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.45 · IMPLIED 18.3% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Kostroma face FC UFA in Russia - First League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Kostroma a 53% chance, the draw 24% and FC UFA 22%, so Spartak Kostroma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Spartak Kostroma and 0.8 for FC UFA (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Kostroma are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.75 for FC UFA. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +13.6%.

Spartak Kostroma vs FC UFA Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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