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Volga Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

Volga Ulyanovsk

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shinnik Yaroslavl

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.3%0-26.4%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.7%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-17.7%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 41.7% 2.40 -11.9%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 35.8% 35.8% 2.79 -0.1%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.1% 2.08 +4.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 28.6% 3.50 -1.0%

BTTS 53.0% 55.2% 1.81 -4.1%

Home O1.5 31.7% 40.8% 2.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 35.6% 36.6% 2.73 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Volga Ulyanovsk1.2

Shinnik Yaroslavl1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VOLGA ULYANOVSK · PPG 1.21

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL · PPG 1.26

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Volga Ulyanovsk (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -11.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.79 · IMPLIED 35.8% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Volga Ulyanovsk face Shinnik Yaroslavl in Russia - First League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Volga Ulyanovsk a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 36%, so Volga Ulyanovsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.1 for Shinnik Yaroslavl (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Volga Ulyanovsk are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.26 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Volga Ulyanovsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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