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Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 8 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:30

Torpedo Moskva

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spartak Kostroma

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.5%0-25.4%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.8%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 50.0% 2.00 -11.6%

Draw 26.7% 30.7% 3.26 -7.8%

Away win 29.2% 27.2% 3.68 +4.5%

Over 2.5 52.1% 46.1% 2.17 +13.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 26.6% 3.76 +16.2%

BTTS 54.7% 52.6% 1.90 +3.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 44.8% 2.23 -15.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 28.7% 3.48 +23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Moskva1.3

Spartak Kostroma1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO MOSKVA · PPG 1.45

SPARTAK KOSTROMA · PPG 1.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Moskva (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -11.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.26 · IMPLIED 30.7% EV -7.8%

Spartak Kostroma (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.68 · IMPLIED 27.2% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Moskva face Spartak Kostroma in Russia - First League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Moskva a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Kostroma 29%, so Torpedo Moskva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Torpedo Moskva and 1.2 for Spartak Kostroma (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Moskva are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.82 for Spartak Kostroma. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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