Today / Russia - First League / FC UFA vs Enisey

FC UFA vs Enisey Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

FC UFA

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Enisey

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.7%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.1%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 34.2% 2.92 +36.7%

Draw 24.5% 31.4% 3.18 -13.3%

Away win 28.7% 42.0% 2.38 -19.0%

Over 2.5 51.2% 43.3% 2.31 +18.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 23.5% 4.25 +31.3%

BTTS 53.0% 51.5% 1.94 +2.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 32.3% 3.10 +40.7%

Away O1.5 30.6% 37.6% 2.66 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC UFA1.6

Enisey1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC UFA · PPG 1.90

ENISEY · PPG 1.31

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC UFA (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +36.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.18 · IMPLIED 31.4% EV -13.3%

Enisey (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC UFA face Enisey in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC UFA a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Enisey 29%, so FC UFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC UFA and 1.0 for Enisey (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC UFA are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.31 for Enisey. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +40.7%. This match finished 3-1.

FC UFA vs Enisey Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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