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Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Matchday 7 ·Thursday, August 20, 2026, 15:30

Arsenal Tula

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rotor Volgograd

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 49.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-110.5%0-26.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.0%1-112.8%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.1%2-17.8%2-25.0%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 36.8% 2.72 -2.1%

Draw 27.2% 32.7% 3.06 -10.1%

Away win 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 41.3% 2.42 +21.5%

Over 3.5 29.2% 22.0% 4.55 +19.7%

BTTS 54.4% 49.8% 2.01 +9.3%

Home O1.5 32.9% 32.9% 3.04 +0.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 34.0% 2.94 +9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -34.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.4%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Tula1.2

Rotor Volgograd1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL TULA · PPG 1.51

ROTOR VOLGOGRAD · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Tula (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -2.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.06 · IMPLIED 32.7% EV -10.1%

Rotor Volgograd (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tula face Rotor Volgograd in Russia - First League on Thursday, August 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tula a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Rotor Volgograd 37%, so Rotor Volgograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arsenal Tula and 1.3 for Rotor Volgograd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tula are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.18 for Rotor Volgograd. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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