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Hønefoss W vs Fortuna Ålesund W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:00

Hønefoss W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Fortuna Ålesund W

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.78 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.50

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-18.0%0-210.6%0-39.3%0-4+11.6%1 1-02.6%1-16.9%1-29.0%1-38.0%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.1%2-12.9%2-23.9%2-33.4%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.1%3-31.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 71.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.0% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 69.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.6%

#2 0–3 9.3%

#3 1–2 9.0%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hønefoss W0.9

Fortuna Ålesund W2.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HØNEFOSS W · PPG 1.00

FORTUNA ÅLESUND W · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.78 for Away, form 1.00 vs 2.50

Win probability 1X2

Hønefoss W (H) 13.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortuna Ålesund W (A) 71.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hønefoss W face Fortuna Ålesund W in Norway - Toppserien on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hønefoss W a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Fortuna Ålesund W 71%, so Fortuna Ålesund W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Hønefoss W and 2.6 for Fortuna Ålesund W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hønefoss W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Fortuna Ålesund W. This match finished 0-1.

Hønefoss W vs Fortuna Ålesund W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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