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Brickfield Rangers vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:30

Brickfield Rangers

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Penrhyncoch

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.3%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.3%1-22.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.9%2-17.2%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-18.1%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.2%4+-115.7%4+-27.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 73.5% 1.36 +4.0%

Draw 15.8% 23.1% 4.33 -18.9%

Away win 7.7% 16.7% 6.00 -32.3%

Over 2.5 71.1% 73.5% 1.36 -3.3%

Over 3.5 48.1% 51.8% 1.93 -7.2%

BTTS 54.7% 64.5% 1.55 -15.2%

Home O1.5 78.4% 73.5% 1.36 +6.6%

Away O1.5 23.4% 30.5% 3.28 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 76% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0✓ 7.9%

#4 4–0 7.4%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brickfield Rangers3.3

Penrhyncoch0.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRICKFIELD RANGERS · PPG 1.77

PENRHYNCOCH · PPG 0.98

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.42 for Home, form 1.77 vs 0.98 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Brickfield Rangers (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +4.0%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -18.9%

Penrhyncoch (A) 7.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brickfield Rangers face Penrhyncoch in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brickfield Rangers a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Penrhyncoch 8%, so Brickfield Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Brickfield Rangers and 0.9 for Penrhyncoch (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brickfield Rangers are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.98 for Penrhyncoch. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Brickfield Rangers vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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