Today / Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 / Bjarg vs Mjondalen

Bjarg vs Mjondalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

Bjarg

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Mjondalen

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.5%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.7%1-110.0%1-28.8%1-35.2%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.7%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.2%3-14.0%3-23.5%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 41.6% — — —

Over 2.5 61.5% — — —

Over 3.5 39.2% — — —

BTTS 60.9% — — —

Home O1.5 43.9% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bjarg1.5

Mjondalen1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BJARG · PPG 1.25

MJONDALEN · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bjarg (H) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mjondalen (A) 41.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bjarg face Mjondalen in Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bjarg a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Mjondalen 42%, so Mjondalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bjarg and 1.8 for Mjondalen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bjarg are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.62 for Mjondalen. This match finished 1-0.

Bjarg vs Mjondalen Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 1 Predictions